Daniel Lacalle

What the Dry Bulk tells us that markets might be ignoring

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bdiy index

Dry Bulk is back to almost January levels. We have seen a consistent and improving number of datapoints pointing to a more bullish environment for exporting companies-countries and commodities. This is driven predominantly by movements ion oil and grain. Interesting that we have a combination of strength in dayrates (as pointed out below) and volumes (as Frontline mentioned yesterday, picking up 12% MTD). Mostly driven by Asia, as usual

In the Cape market the Pacific basin is particularly strong with some vessels being contracted at USD 12.25/ton for West Australia to China vs index of USD 11.8/ton. Data is from Pareto.

In the Atlantic charterers are bidding USD 28.5/ton and owners asking USD 29.5/ton for a Brazil to China trip vs index of USD 28.8/ton.

Brokers report of owners asking USD 60,000/day for a Fronthaul trip (Atlantic to the Far East).

In the Panamax market the Atlantic is the driving force with US Gulf grain drawing the most tonnage. Average Pmax TC rates gained 11.1% to USD 25,100/day in three weeks.

In general very positive for inflation (food in particular) and a pick up in exports in the year of the highest increase of new vessel availability since 1998.

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