The oil market has changed substantially over the past ten years.
The most important factor that explains the lower volatility and price impact in the face of geopolitical risks is that the United States no longer depends on OPEC. At the end of 2019, the United States reached a record in oil production, more than 12 million barrels a day, above Russia, 10.8 million barrels a day, and Saydu Arabia, 10.3 million barrels a day. The United States’ dependence on foreign oil purchases is the lowest ever, and if we consider North America (Canada. US and Mexico), the region is almost self-sufficient.
Continue reading Oil Weakness and Stagnation Risks
What happens when politicians see that their monster stimuli have not delivered? They bring the next rabbit out of a hat. They need a new name and a new magic solution to make citizens believe in the magic of demand-side policies despite the constant failure of those same plans. Continue reading The New Green Deal Is Just Old White Elephants
Key Points Discussed (original link and summary by Richard Snow)
- The Texas oil revolution
- Diminishing effectiveness of monetary policy
- Commodity prices and the Trade War ‘facade’
- Perverse incentives and the inverted credit cycle
- The Chinese debt load
- Forecasts and trading strategies for 2019
Continue reading Crude Oil Price 2019 & Insights from Daniel Lacalle