I always get excited about a market correction when I read the Keynesian consensus predict a disaster. The same people who claimed massive money printing and soaring government spending wouldn’t cause inflation are the ones who know exactly how tariffs will impact aggregate prices. Fascinating.

In June 2016, sixteen Nobel Prize winners expected higher inflation from tariffs, and it never happened. Furthermore, many of those economists recommended enormous government spending and Federal Reserve quantitative easing in 2020, stating there were no concerns about inflation. However, this led to the highest inflationary burst in thirty years. Reality showed that there was no inflation in 2016-2019 and that the insane printing and spending spree of 2021 led to the current inflationary burst. This happens because many economic experts will always justify all government imbalances and tax hikes but raise alarm at any tax cut or supply-side measure. We should never trust experts that work painfully close to social democrat governments.

In recent days, we have read numerous articles about a possible agreement between the US administration and its main trading partners to devalue the US dollar. It has been named “The Mar-A-Lago Accord”, a concept inspired by the Plaza Accord of 1985, which aimed to devalue the US dollar to address trade imbalances. That plan failed.

The objective, according to the financial media, would be to weaken the US dollar, boost US export competitiveness, and rebalance global trade. Another proposal involves restructuring US debt by swapping existing obligations for longer-term bonds, such as 100-year Treasury bonds, to ease fiscal pressures. However, this would be a dangerous and potentially counterproductive idea.

The consensus narrative tells you that markets are weak because of Trump’s tariffs. However, that is a typical excuse that makes no sense. If tariffs were the cause of concern, markets would have tanked in 2016 and in 2021. Remember that Biden maintained and increased all of Trump’s tariffs. Between 2016 and 2024, the tariffs imposed by the European Union and China on the United States were much larger than levies against them. However, you never read or heard that the EU and China tariffs were going to destroy the economy or lead to massive inflation.

The mainstream consensus narrative always wants you to believe that tariffs are fine if imposed by socialist countries and evil if imposed by the United States. However, if the market was alarmed by tariffs and the disastrous impact they may have on the economy, German and Japanese bond yields would not have soared. Instead, they would have plummeted as investors sought refuge. Furthermore, if the world feared a US economic disaster, Treasury bond yields would not have declined.