Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.
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Market participants’ excess of optimism with the trade agreement between the United States and China is clearly exaggerated, once we have the details.
Both the United States and China’s economy have suffered a mild impact from trade disputes. The United States saw a mild slowdown in growth but did not suffer inflationary pressures from the tariffs, while its trade deficit shrunk reduced to the lowest level in 17 months and unemployment is at a minimum of 50 years. In the case of China, the growth of the economy (even adjusted for inflated data) was less affected by the trade war than many feared. Although its exports grew much less than expected, it has been able to increase them somewhat, 0.5% in 2019.
The so-called “economic emergency law” announced by the new government in Argentina is simply another massive set of tariffs and burdens on the private sector to finance the bloated public expenditure, in a country where confiscatory monetary and fiscal policy is the norm.
What is the big problem of the recent Economic Emergency Law? That it does not address the country’s massive monetary and fiscal imbalances. Moreover, the big problem of the law and, in particular, of the decisions to raise retentions to the agricultural sector, is that they aim to increase the confiscatory nature of Argentina’s fiscal policy.
The oil market has changed substantially over the past ten years.
The most important factor that explains the lower volatility and price impact in the face of geopolitical risks is that the United States no longer depends on OPEC. At the end of 2019, the United States reached a record in oil production, more than 12 million barrels a day, above Russia, 10.8 million barrels a day, and Saydu Arabia, 10.3 million barrels a day. The United States’ dependence on foreign oil purchases is the lowest ever, and if we consider North America (Canada. US and Mexico), the region is almost self-sufficient.
Upside-down economics’ defenders say that deficits create savings. The process never starts with deficit spending, but with the assets and wealth of the economy, which can be leveraged only to a certain extent and never decided by the borrower but the lenders. Borrowing is never the first step neither endless.