All posts by Daniel Lacalle

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

Container Orders Plummet. Trade Deals Now or Economic Depression Soon.

Global container booking volumes fell by 49% between the last week of March and the first week of April 2025, according to Freight Waves. Imports from China to the United States collapsed by 64%, with imports of apparel and textiles declining by a whopping 59% and 57%, respectively. The figures coming from shipping companies are worse than those seen during the Covid-19 crisis.

These alarming figures suggest that importers are unwilling to accept higher prices in the middle of a tariff war, that exporters cannot simply choose to move their products elsewhere easily, and that the excess capacity in many sectors is much larger than initially expected.

Continue reading Container Orders Plummet. Trade Deals Now or Economic Depression Soon.

When Keynesians predict a disaster, start buying.

I always get excited about a market correction when I read the Keynesian consensus predict a disaster. The same people who claimed massive money printing and soaring government spending wouldn’t cause inflation are the ones who know exactly how tariffs will impact aggregate prices. Fascinating.

In June 2016, sixteen Nobel Prize winners expected higher inflation from tariffs, and it never happened. Furthermore, many of those economists recommended enormous government spending and Federal Reserve quantitative easing in 2020, stating there were no concerns about inflation. However, this led to the highest inflationary burst in thirty years. Reality showed that there was no inflation in 2016-2019 and that the insane printing and spending spree of 2021 led to the current inflationary burst. This happens because many economic experts will always justify all government imbalances and tax hikes but raise alarm at any tax cut or supply-side measure. We should never trust experts that work painfully close to social democrat governments.

Continue reading When Keynesians predict a disaster, start buying.

Economic Pain? Market Concerns About the US Economy May Be Exaggerated

A correction in equity markets tends to generate an immediate negative reaction from citizens, citing political headlines about tariffs and trade as the reasons for equity volatility. However, if markets were scared about the US economy, German and Japanese sovereign bonds would not have declined. Furthermore, at the close of this article, 493 stocks in the S&P 500 are flat in the first quarter despite having reached all-time highs in 2024 and all the negative headlines of 2025.

The Bloomberg US Large Cap Index, excluding the magnificent seven, is flat year-to-date. It seems that we are living a normal correction after a massive bull run in the past five years, coming from expectations of persistent inflation and fewer rate cuts. That is why German and Japanese sovereign bonds, historically the beneficiaries in a risk-off scenario, are weak.

Continue reading Economic Pain? Market Concerns About the US Economy May Be Exaggerated

Devaluing the US dollar: How to Make America Poorer Again.

In recent days, we have read numerous articles about a possible agreement between the US administration and its main trading partners to devalue the US dollar. It has been named “The Mar-A-Lago Accord”, a concept inspired by the Plaza Accord of 1985, which aimed to devalue the US dollar to address trade imbalances. That plan failed.

The objective, according to the financial media, would be to weaken the US dollar, boost US export competitiveness, and rebalance global trade. Another proposal involves restructuring US debt by swapping existing obligations for longer-term bonds, such as 100-year Treasury bonds, to ease fiscal pressures. However, this would be a dangerous and potentially counterproductive idea.

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