A few months ago I wrote this article at the World Economic Forum called “A Yellow Card For The Global Economy“. It tried to serve as a warning on the rising imbalances of the emerging and leading economies. Unfortunately, since then, those imbalances have continued to rise and market complacency reached new highs. Continue reading Market crash? Another red card for the economy
This is a guest contribution by Seth Levine, CFA.
Many have commented on the froth that they see across the investment markets. To be sure, I’ve contributed my share to this growing collection (see here, here, here, and here for a few). Finding value in the “Everything Bubble” –to borrow a phrase from Jesse Felder–has been undoubtedly difficult. Many have sought the shelter of sovereign bonds. Continue reading Reframing The Risks And Opportunities In Rates (Guest Post)
“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” – Warren Buffett
The US 10-year bond has reached, at the close of this article, a yield of 3.2%, the highest since 2011. As inflation in the United States picks up, the economy grows well above consensus estimates and unemployment falls to the lowest level of the last fifty years, it is only normal that the Federal Reserve rate hikes are confirmed. Continue reading The US Ten-Year Shows The Extent Of The Bond Bubble
The International Monetary Fund can be criticized for many things, but its analysis of countries’ debt risk tends to be worth a read.
In this case, the International Monetary Fund has once again warned Spain of the risk of reversing reforms and increasing imbalances. Continue reading Spain: IMF Highlights Rising Risks