The G20 summit has not generated unexpected or significant headlines and, of course, is not a catalyst for a relevant change in the global economic trends. The United States and China have only agreed to postpone tariff increases, but no real trade agreement has been reached.
If we look at the last G20 meeting conclusions, nothing has really improved. Plans to introduce new tariffs are delayed, and the result is exactly what happened in the previous G20. The real news is the evidence of a manufacturing recession. Continue reading Forget the G20, global manufacturing recession is here
The recent macroeconomic data of the leading economies point to a widespread slowdown. What is more concerning is not just a logical moderation in the path of growth, but the acceleration in the weakening of economies that were supposed to be stronger and healthier. It is even more concerning that this aggressive worsening of key leading indicators in China, the EU, and most emerging economies happens at the peak of the largest monetary and fiscal stimulus in decades. Continue reading From Slowdown To Crisis. Liquidity and low rates, wrong solutions for the wrong diagnosis
In a report called “A report card for unconventional monetary policy,” Deutsche Bank has analyzed the impact on the economy of “unconventional” monetary policies, quantitative easing and negative interest rates.
Continue reading Monetary Stimulus Does Not Work. The Evidence Is In
If there is anything that we have learned from the development of the British economy since the Brexit referendum is that doomsayers were wrong. Continue reading Brexit. May’s Way Is Not The Only Way