Allow me to remind you of a few uncomfortable truths.
Government spending is out of control in developed nations. Furthermore, no interventionist government wants to cut spending or balance the budget. Government spending empowers politicians, and reducing it means losing the grip on the economy.
Interventionist governments aren’t concerned about debts, deficits, or inflation. Inflation is a deliberate policy, and interventionist governments seek to nationalize the economy while imposing total control over productive sectors by issuing continuously devalued currencies.
Government spending is printing money. Politicians are happy to promise more free stuff by endlessly spending because they know they won’t pay for it and that it will make citizens and businesses more dependent and submissive to political power. No government can truly reduce debt without cutting spending.
Inflation is evidence of the loss of solvency for the issuer of money. It is a de facto slow default. Inflation serves as a policy that justifies and perpetuates significant government imbalances, shifting the financial burden onto real wages and deposit savings.
The fallacy of balancing the budget through higher taxes leads to economic stagnation and more debt. High taxes are not a tool to reduce debt but to justify high indebtedness. Tax receipts are cyclical whereas government expenditures are consolidated and annualised.
No interventionist government is going to willingly act to reduce debt and spending because they can always tax more and blame others for their problems. Furthermore, central banks have stopped playing the essential role of curbing fiscal excess to become enablers of rising fiscal imbalances.
Central banks play a crucial role in the fiat world due to the intertwining of monetary and fiscal policy. The system will gradually collapse if central banks do not stop the growth of government fiscal imbalances.
However, the independence of central banks is diminishing daily, and their policies tend to conceal excessive government spending and debt. Meanwhile, governments ignore the fact that they have surpassed the three limits of government debt: economic, fiscal, and inflationary. More government debt means lower growth, more taxes generate weaker receipts, and more government spending perpetuates inflation.
Now that central banks have stopped being the essential limit to government excess, there are only two alternatives: gold and Bitcoin.
Gold has already overtaken the euro as the second largest asset after the US dollar in global central banks. In a few months, it will be the largest asset. Global central banks have lost confidence in sovereign debt from developed countries as a reserve asset. Thus, developed nations’ long-term bond yields rise above inflation rate expectations.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has shown investors and citizens that a decentralised currency can gradually become a low-volatility reserve asset, a generalised means of payment, and a unit of measurement. As global citizens see Bitcoin as an increasingly viable alternative to fiat money, more are using it to store value and protect themselves against inflation.
Investors do not trust developed economies to maintain their solvency. Gold and Bitcoin are now playing the role that central banks have abandoned: reminding governments that they cannot spend and print currency forever. Bitcoin may be a teenager and more volatile, but the powerful message to the world is clear: the years of uncontrolled government spending and printing are over.
Obviously, governments do not like this. And central banks that have stopped being as independent as they should be, like the ECB, are looking to eliminate the risk of independent currencies taking away the monopoly of money by issuing a legally imposed central bank digital currency (CBDC). Interestingly, the U.S. administration is doing the opposite, banning CBDCs and embracing crypto as the next monetary revolution.
The ECB is admitting the euro’s enormous loss of utilisation in global transactions and panicking by issuing a surveillance tool disguised as money, the CBDC. The US administration wants to cement the dollar’s reserve status by attracting global investment in crypto.
Bitcoin and gold are now playing the essential role that independent central banks should be enforcing. Central banks are unnecessarily dovish and continue to disguise bloated government imbalances. Gold and Bitcoin are essential parts of the answer to the inflationary temptations of governments. The only things that will save us from government excesses are decentralisation and independent money.
In the past, Silver has been a secondary “commodity” to gold and is probably a safe purchasing power alternative to “gold”. As gold prices itself out the reach of most citizens silver will serve a safe alternative.
Bitcoin is also fiat money and certainly has its risks in my opinion – I like the physical currency versus the paper products.
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There is a natural difference between bitcoin and gold that makes gold a better store of value.
Bitcoin is a form of credit whereas gold is cash.
Ludwig von Mises explains the essential temporal difference between cash and credit in his book “The Theory of Money and Credit”.
Cash transactions involve the direct and immediate exchange of values leaving no outstanding claim.
However in a credit transaction one party exchanges present goods for a claim to future goods.
The sale of present goods or services in exchange for bitcoin is in reality an extension of credit to the bitcoin system.
And the credit is unsecured credit because there is no collateral to back it. In other words, the future acceptance of bitcoin in trade at a particular rate of exchange is entirely conditional on factors that are not guaranteed, such as the willingness to take bitcoin as payment or having the means to complete the transaction.
So in the event of a cyclical credit contraction like 2008, where people are forced to liquidate goods to meet their needs, bitcoin is subject to a loss of purchasing power along with other credit instruments.
Gold doesn’t have that kind of systemic risk that is inherent in credit, where a cascade of bad debt produces a sudden liquidity demand resulting in a loss of purchasing power. It’s just the opposite.
When people need safe money without counterparty risk, gold is the best there is and so it fetches a premium price during an economic crisis.