All posts by Daniel Lacalle

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

The Big State Monetary and Fiscal System Is Over

In 2021, The Economist ran an entire number hailing “The Return of Big Government” as the end of the so-called—but inexistent in practice—”austerity” paradigm and the evidence that more spending and a big state was the solution to the post-covid world, delivering economic growth, social spending, and sustainability.

In 2025, the same publication ran a number called “The Coming Debt Crisis

The outcome of the return of big government was the return of persistent inflation, stagnation, and unsustainable debt. Who would have guessed it? Anyone doing the numbers and everyone who understands that government stimulus and so-called public spending multiplier effects are simply myths of statism.

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The Great Diesel Crisis. How Policy Choices Made the West Vulnerable

Diesel’s Record Price Is Not Just the Iran War: It Is the Cost of Interventionist Energy Policy

How taxes, regulation, refinery closures, sanctions and declining domestic production turned a geopolitical shock into a diesel-price crisis

Do not blame diesel prices on the Iran war or the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. The geopolitical risk premium attached to oil prices is relevant, but the market was already weakened by policy choices.

Europe has taxed motor fuels heavily, imposed escalating regulatory and carbon costs across the supply chain, closed refining capacity, sanctioned major sources of refined-product supply, and discouraged investment in domestic oil and gas production. Today’s refined product system is smaller, less flexible and more import-dependent, and, as such, every geopolitical disruption produces a larger price shock.

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The Monumental Mistake of Raising Rates in September

Three members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise rates in July. However, the Committee held the federal funds target at 3.5%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote. Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and J.P. Morgan all expect a September hike. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points in June and is expected to raise them again in September.

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Bessent’s Debt Buyback Is Not QE—and the Market Is Panicking About the Wrong Country

On August 19, 2026, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity sectors.

The current maximum of $2 billion per operation will rise to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 through November 4, 2026, the end of the quarterly refunding period. The following day, Scott Bessent added that the figure could exceed $4 billion per issue and that the Treasury would “make a market” in those maturities, according to the Treasury.

It is worth putting the scale in context before talking about monetization. In its August 5 quarterly refunding announcement, the Treasury had already planned to buy back up to $38 billion in off-the-run securities for liquidity support and up to $25 billion in the one-month-to-two-year sector for cash-management purposes during the quarter, according to Treasury Department data. The August expansion adds at least another $14 billion, raising the maximum buybacks for the August 6–November 5 period from $69 billion to $83 billion, according to Reuters.

Continue reading Bessent’s Debt Buyback Is Not QE—and the Market Is Panicking About the Wrong Country