All posts by Daniel Lacalle

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

What is actually behind the Mamdani and Newsom deficit elimination magic?

Governor Gavin Newsom and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani have been selling this week the same comforting story: the era of painful deficits is over, thanks to “disciplined” progressive budgeting.

What is actually behind the Mamdani and Newsom deficit elimination magic?

Both are using a familiar toolkit of optimistic revenue assumptions, one-off fixes, and rebranding of old tricks to claim victory over structural imbalances that are very much alive.

Newsom’s May Revision for 2026–27 declares, “No deficit this year. No deficit next year” and “$0 structural deficit through July 2028.”

On paper, the revised plan lays out roughly a $350 billion spending plan for 2026–27 and says revenues are $16.5 billion higher than projected in January, driven mostly by the stock market and the artificial intelligence boom. Fascinating.

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Net Zero and Statism Deliver Stagnation: How Interventionism Undermined Growth in Canada and the UK

Net Zero and Statism Deliver Stagnation: How Interventionism Undermined Growth in Canada and the UK

Governments are terrible at picking winners and even worse at choosing losers. Net zero and interventionist “Keynesian” policies in Canada and the UK have proven that government intervention has created a worse outcome than anyone would have expected. The result is higher costs, distorted incentives, and weakened productivity growth, with increased dependency on fossil fuels to attend to peak demand, exactly what Austrian economists predicted.

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How America Became the World’s Oil Superpower


The war in Iran and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have accelerated a change that had been slowly building for more than a decade.

The United States has become the world’s emergency oil supplier. Before the conflict, American production was already at record highs, but the shock to Middle Eastern exports has proved more relevant for markets and geopolitical strategists. The United States is no longer just the biggest producer. Now, it has become the preferred and most reliable supplier whenever a significant disruption removes millions of barrels from the market.

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Is Europe sliding towards stagflation?

Europe is not yet in recession, but the latest business and consumer surveys show that the risk is no longer remote.

Is Europe sliding towards stagflation?

The euro area’s flash composite PMI fell to 48.6 in April from 50.7 in March, moving below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction and signalling a quarterly GDP decline of around 0.1 per cent after a 0.2 per cent gain in the first quarter, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

At the same time, the European Commission’s flash consumer-confidence indicator dropped to -20.6 in the euro area and -19.4 in the EU, both significantly below their long-term averages and the weakest readings since 2022, according to the European Commission.

The most worrying part of the PMI release is not just that output is contracting. It is that the contraction is arriving both in services and manufacturing and with renewed inflation pressure.

Input costs rose in April at the fastest pace since the end of 2022, while selling-price inflation reached a 37-month high, with S&P Global noting that its prices-charged index is consistent with consumer inflation running near 4 per cent.

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