All posts by Daniel Lacalle

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

Cuba sank because of its repressive regime, not because of an external blockade

Cuba’s economy is not sinking because of a supposed “blockade,” but because of a communist regime that combines political terror, economic ruin, and systematic propaganda to hide its own failure.

Cuba sank because of its repressive regime, not because of an external blockade

The murderous dictatorship has imposed a parasitic model that uses poverty to play the victim while enriching the regime’s leaders.

Cuba did not run out of oil due to any blockade. Cuba produces 45,000 barrels of oil per day and receives more than 50,000 barrels daily free from Mexico and Venezuela. This is far more than domestic demand. So why has Cuba run out of fuel?

The dictatorship resells that crude oil and pockets the dollars, hoarding more than $18 billion stolen from Cubans in foreign accounts, as reported by the Miami Herald.

The only blockade Cuba faces is the one the dictatorship imposes on its own people. 

Continue reading Cuba sank because of its repressive regime, not because of an external blockade

Supreme Court Tariff “Bomb”? Fears of a $200 Billion Refund Shock Are Overdone

The market consensus reaction to the Supreme Court ruling on the Liberation Day tariffs exaggerates the negatives and ignores the options of the Trump administration.

Markets are overreacting to headlines about a $175–200 billion tariff refund financial hole. However, the Supreme Court ruling opens a long, narrow, and manageable process, not an imminent fiscal crisis.

In the days after the Supreme Court struck down the Trump Liberation Day tariffs, many sell-side analysts turned a complex legal ruling into a simple story, stating that Washington would soon have to repay up to $200 billion. Risk premiums in Treasuries ticked higher, gold and silver soared and some commentators warned about a looming refund shock for the U.S. budget that would make government debt soar.

The impoverishment of Spaniards is the result of years of interventionist policies

Inflation, bloating GDP with public spending and immigration and hidden unemployment are the ingredients of the so-called “economic miracle” of the Sánchez administration.

The impoverishment of Spaniards is the result of years of interventionist policies

Spain closes 2025 with the consumer price index (CPI) rate above the euro area average and higher than all the large economies in Europe.

Cumulative inflation, measured by CPI, during Sánchez’s term reached 24.8%. Housing and food have risen by almost twice as much as the headline CPI.

The reality of Spain is that the loss of purchasing power and the impoverishment of Spaniards are the result of years of interventionist policies.

Home purchase prices have soared by more than 38%, housing-related expenses (rent, utilities, maintenance) have risen by more than 30%, and food prices are up around 38%.

The “real shopping basket” studies find increases of between 40% and 60% in basic products between 2019 and 2025, showing that inflation in essential goods has been far higher than the official average.

Between 2019 and 2025, real wages in Spain have fallen by 0.3%, according to CaixaBank, but the picture is much worse if we look at net real wages, which have fallen by more than double because the government refused to index taxes to inflation and has sharply increased the fiscal burden of families and businesses.

Continue reading The impoverishment of Spaniards is the result of years of interventionist policies

China’s Debt Model Creates Danger of Stagnation

The latest social financing figures from China show an economy that is increasingly relying on government debt while private demand for credit remains weak. The strength of the Chinese technology sector and its exporting companies gives enough room for leverage. However, behind the weak private sector credit demand lies an evident economic slowdown that the Chinese government acknowledges, challenging consumption patterns, a significant overcapacity problem, and the depth of the housing crisis.

The current economic model, focused on delivering 5% real economic growth, requires larger doses of debt to achieve smaller increments of growth, especially productive sector growth. The government has focused on reducing debt and overcapacity imbalances while reorienting its exports and financial system to lessen dependence on the US dollar; however, the main challenge for the Chinese economy remains boosting consumer demand, despite rate cuts and easing financial conditions.

Continue reading China’s Debt Model Creates Danger of Stagnation