Oil oversupply a ‘double-edged sword’ for OPEC, analyst says from CNBC. Continue reading Oil oversupply a ‘double-edged sword’ for OPEC (CNBC)
All posts by Daniel Lacalle
Oil Price Roundtrip, A Headache For OPEC
Oil prices surged into the third quarter due to a combination of factors:
- Artificial supply manipulation, as OPEC maintained production cuts despite healthy demand and better inventories. We discussed it here.
- Strong leveraged buying based on reflation expectations. As the graph below shows, net length in crude oil rose significantly, only to fall abruptly as rates rise.
- Excessively optimistic demand growth estimates. In the past three months, we have seen demand estimates slashed by brokers who, at the same time, kept bullish estimates of oil prices into 2019.
US Elections: Few Changes, Similar Challenges.
The midterm elections in the United States have produced a result that was very similar to what the surveys estimated. The so-called “blue wave”, an expected overwhelming victory of the Democratic Party predicted by some, did not happen.
Continue reading US Elections: Few Changes, Similar Challenges.
The Next Financial Crisis
We have been reading numerous comments recently about a forthcoming recession and the next crisis, particularly on the tenth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Continue reading The Next Financial Crisis