The current oil price forward curve shows that the current global energy shock may be significant but short-lived. The forward curve presents a steep disinflationary trend to $80 per barrel by the end of 2026. Markets are discounting a short war with limited impact on supply but immediate ripple effects on markets and importing economies.

In the worst case, a new energy shock triggered by war with Iran would bring stagflation pressures across the global economy, especially in the economies that have been unable to strengthen their energy supply chains since 2022, like the European Union, which is still in a low-growth environment subject to significant impact from energy shocks. Even if the conflict is short‑lived, the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf infrastructure has made the oil market go from an oversupply of 4 million barrels per day, according to the IEA, to a tight balance, as shipping routes come under pressure.

The European Union had years to prepare itself for an energy crisis after the 2022 shock. Thanks to a warm winter and ample supply from the United States, the European gas crisis was significantly less severe than feared. However, the continent avoided blackouts and an economic collapse due to the combination of good luck with weather and excess productive capacity in the United States.

Instead of acknowledging the luck factor, the European Union continued to do nothing serious about security of supply, while some countries maintained the nuclear shutdown, which has left them vulnerable to future energy shortages. Instead of creating a plan to eliminate the bans on resource development, nuclear shutdowns, and limits to investment, the European Union preferred to hide its head in the sand, expecting that nothing would happen.

The recent correction in Bitcoin has created a familiar debate. Is it a worthless speculative asset or a true monetary alternative? At $67,000, the price may be volatile, but it is hardly worthless. 

Bitcoin may be both a warning and an opportunity. It remains a strong hedge against the destruction of fiat money and financial repression for many citizens in the world, but it is also a volatile asset that can damage investors who believe its price can only rise. 

For many investors, the recent correction in bitcoin is a concern. However, this is only if we look at bitcoin in US dollars, euros or world reserve currencies.

For citizens all over the world, from Cuba to Iran, suffering the elevated inflation and currency demolition created by their governments, bitcoin is certainly a haven.

The huge growth in bitcoin’s price over the past few years shows that many investors have lost faith in fiat currencies and the solvency of states that are getting more in debt.