Category Archives: Global Economy

Global Economy

Spain’s Economic Freedom Improves—But Post-COVID Risks Are Enormous (Heritage Foundation)

THIS REPORT WAS PUBLISHED BY THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION HERE.

Spain’s Economic Freedom Improves—But Post-COVID Risks Are Enormous (Heritage Foundation)

The Spanish economy is under serious threat. The Sánchez Administration is using the excuse of a serious health crisis to enact policies that undermine investor and business security and restrict personal and economic freedom. Such interventionism will trap the economy by increasing fiscal imbalances—Spain’s historical mistake—and put the country on a destructive track that will erode freedom and result in excessive spending, more debt, and rigidity. The long-term social and economic consequences of these mistakes can be enormous. Instead, the government should implement serious measures to enhance economic freedom and allow a strong recovery soon.

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The Risk of the “Bailout Of Everything”

Despite massive government and central bank stimuli, the global economy is seeing a concerning rise in defaults and delinquencies. The main central banks’ balance sheets (the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England and People’s Bank Of China) have soared to a combined $20 trillion, while the fiscal easing announcements in the major economies exceed 7% of the world’s GDP, according to Fitch Ratings. This is the biggest combined stimulus plan in history. However, businesses are closing at a record pace and unemployment has reached extremely elevated levels in many countries.

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An “L”-Shaped Recovery Is Not An Anomaly, It Is The Norm.

Many analysts and economists are trying to predict the shape of the economic recovery post-Covid-19. To understand how the recovery may look like, we need to look at past recoveries and at the history of pandemics.

Starting with the pandemic, we know a few things. First, there has never been a vaccine for any of the previous 18 Covid types. Second, there has never been a pandemic without a second wave before a treatment existed. Taking both things into account, the idea that many investors have that the worst is discounted may be overoptimistic.

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Global Investors Demand Gold As Protection Against Financial Repression

Daniel Lacalle, IG Trading the Markets, May 20, 2020

Podcast links:

Disconnect between markets and economic reality:

“There is a huge disconnect between markets and the economic reality, and it’s fundamentally based on the view that 2020 is a lost year and therefore what investors need to think about is 2021 is a recovery year. It looks a very dangerous bet to me because if there’s anything that we have learned from this crisis is that estimates for 2021 remain excessively optimistic, and that the V-shaped recovery is more than elusive.”

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