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China Recovery Stalls

One of the key pillars of the consensus bullish view about 2021 is the Chinese recovery, supported by very optimistic estimates of growth in services and exports.

The details in the official February Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) show a different picture. It seems that the data of the Chinese economy, especially in services and exports, is inconsistent with a 6% GDP growth as most analysts expect for 2021.

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Debunking The Myth Of The Savings Glut

Many economists point to the “abnormal” rise in savings as a bullish signal that will drive a stronger recovery and a consumption boom.

The figures look impressive. In the United States, JP Morgan estimates $2 trillion in deposits, up from $1 trillion before the pandemic. In the Eurozone, Bloomberg Economics estimates an excess of currency and deposit holdings of 300 billion euro, also double the level seen prior to the Covid-19 crisis. However, the devil is in the details.

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