We reach the end of the year and we start to read many investment banks and strategist reports with the outlook for 2020.
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Latin America’s Debt Maturity Wall
In this short video, we explain the risks to Latin American currencies in countries facing a shortage of reserves in the middle of an important wall of US dollar-denominated maturities.
High Government Spending Leads To Stagnation
The idea that governments can’t lower taxes because there is a deficit, but are free to raise all expenses even if there is a deficit can be found in many political manifestos these days. Central planners always see the economic challenges as a problem of demand, and as such cringe at the idea of prudent investment and saving. When GDP growth, gross capital formation, and consumption are lower than what Keynesians would want, they always blame the alleged problem on “too much saving”, a ridiculous premise based on the perception that economic cycles and excess capacity do not matter and if companies and citizens don’t spend as much as the government wants, then the public sector should spend a lot more. Continue reading High Government Spending Leads To Stagnation
Forget the G20, global manufacturing recession is here
The G20 summit has not generated unexpected or significant headlines and, of course, is not a catalyst for a relevant change in the global economic trends. The United States and China have only agreed to postpone tariff increases, but no real trade agreement has been reached.
If we look at the last G20 meeting conclusions, nothing has really improved. Plans to introduce new tariffs are delayed, and the result is exactly what happened in the previous G20. The real news is the evidence of a manufacturing recession. Continue reading Forget the G20, global manufacturing recession is here