The recent jobless claims figures show how difficult it will be for the U.S. recovery to be as quick and strong as initially expected.
Continue reading U.S. Depression? The V-Shaped Recovery Fades AwayCategory Archives: Sin categoría
The Oil Market Is Broken

OPEC and its partners have been cutting production since September 2016. Between September and November 2016 they cut production by more than 1.7 million barrels a day, a historical cut that was wrongly prolonged throughout the expansionary phase of the global economy. In December 2018 they cut production again.
OPEC’s most serious mistake in recent years has been forgetting its mission and principles and trying to artificially inflate the price of oil. No oil-producing country lost money at 2016 prices, the only thing they could not afford was to pay huge subsidies, civil servants and non-oil expenses that many OPEC members finance with export earnings.
Continue reading The Oil Market Is BrokenMassive Stimulus May Boost Inflation The Wrong Way: Stagflation

All over the world governments and central banks are addressing the pandemic crisis with three main sets of measures:
- Massive liquidity injections and rate cuts to support markets and credit.
- Unprecedented fiscal programs aimed at providing loans and grants for the real economy.
- Large public spending programs, fundamentally in current spending and relief measures.
Large Stimulus Packages Do Not Solve A Supply Shock
In this interview I comment on the risks of expecting the large stimulus packages of governments and central banks to boost growth in a supply shock added to a forced shutdown.