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The EU Google Fine Is Not About Competition, But Against US Tech Giants

I read with surprise the report that the EU has provided to justify the largest fine ever, $2.7 billion, for alleged “unfair use of its search engine” and “abuse of dominant position”.

The fine is the highest ever and more than double the amount of the previous largest one. No EU tech multinational, even ones with a dominant position, has ever been fined more than a couple of hundred million. So, why Google? and does it have any merit?

Why? Because it is a US company that operates outside of the interventionist and bureaucratic empire that the EU has created. One that subsidizes the inefficient companies close to the government by taxing the high productivity sectors.

Does it have any merit? None whatsoever. The EU is showing a worrying lack of understanding of online sales and search engines and twists its arguments to make a dominant position and an abuse that simply do not exist.

Let us start from that unfair view of the abuse of dominant position. How does the EU arrive at such aggressive figures? By ignoring real competitors.

This is the first but crucial and puzzling part of this misguided action. The EU does not consider Amazon, eBay, or the more than 300 price comparison sites that have surfaced since 2005 as “competitors”.

The EU assumes that Google abuses its market position because it is the most widely used search engine. But it does not understand that the use of Google versus other alternatives, Bing, Yahoo etc… is a completely personal choice, not an imposition. No one opens their brand new laptop and finds themselves forced to use Google or Google shopping…. But to say that Amazon and eBay are not competitors of Google Shopping is simply a way of manipulating facts to arrive at a pre-designed conclusion: The evil of market abuse.

Anyone that shops online knows that:

. Stating that Amazon, eBay or the more than 300 price comparison websites created since 2005 are not “competitition” is a mistake.

. The EU fails to understand how consumers search and shop. If there was a perverse incentive to manipulate search, consumers would go elsewhere immediately. Anyone that shops online uses more than one option to find what they want at the best price.

. Google Shopping does not show products using Google’s preference nor demands exclusivity. It benefits SMEs and consumers.

. Using shopping ads and prominent announcements helps consumers find what they want, but if the consumer does not ultimately find what was required, that person will look elsewhere. The EU makes completely wrong assumptions about how consumers use online search engines and price comparison sites.

. Even if Google Shopping decided to manipulate the search, competitors would destroy them in no time with a better search platform.

. The EU is implying that there is a perverse incentive for Google to promote certain products using its market position when its leadership has been achieved precisely by doing the opposite, by providing the best and most varied information to consumers. Doing what the EU assumes would be insane, as it would go against Google’s business model and the reason why consumers decide to use its tools.

. The EU ignores that in online shopping and price comparison, the consumer has all the power. If the consumer felt misinformed or viewed the experience as unsatisfactory, the competition would immediately take the opportunity and absorb that market share.

. The fine shows the EU’s interventionist agenda, not any defense of competition. Everyone knows consumers have the power and how they migrate to other options.

Google explains it perfectly in its answer.

“Showing ads that include pictures, ratings, and prices benefits us, our advertisers, and most of all, our users. And we show them only when your feedback tells us they are relevant”

This is what the EU fails to understand. Leadership and market share in online shopping and the new economy are not maintained by abuse, but by the process of empowering customers.

Then is the size of the fine. It is no surprise. The fine has nothing to do with competition as previous fines to other giant companies have been fractions of what we have read today. So where does this multi-billion figure come from? It is a subterfuge for trying to impose more taxes on Google, once the EU has found it impossible to claim what they wanted to collect from the company because it was illegal and unfair.

The EU is so entrenched in a view of competition that comes from the old economy, that it forgets that disruptive technology companies lead because they can immediately replace those inefficiencies of the market that oligopolies and monopolies create. By the way, they should know that no monopoly can exist without the explicit approval of the government.

Meanwhile, the EU continues to defend European national champions and state oligopolies and disguising thinly veiled taxation decisions with calls for competition.

There is a small problem. The EU will lose in its misguided battle against US tech giants. But there is something worse. It is losing the technology race.

What the EU should do is ask itself why there has been no Google, Amazon, Netflix or Facebook created in Europe. The answer is sad and simple. The EU itself would have prevented it with unfair regulation and fines in order to maintain its “national champion” dinosaur conglomerates.

Daniel Lacalle is Chief Economist at Tressis SV, has a PhD in Economics and is author of “Escape from the Central Bank Trap”, “Life In The Financial Markets” and “The Energy World Is Flat” (Wiley)

Images courtesy @IEB

How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? – 18 economic experts weigh in (Focus Economics)

I believe this is a truly excellent article explaining expansionary monetary policies and outlining the possibilities of unwinding quantitative easing programs. Eighteen global leading economists share their opinions.

Please read all the comments at Focus Economics here.

My part:

“The Federal Reserve is already seriously behind the curve. Reducing the balance sheet by $600bn after a $4.7 trillion stimulus and delaying rate hikes simply make the problem more difficult to solve as we approach a change of cycle and the central bank finds itself with fewer tools. The Federal Reserve should take advantage of the unprecedented demand for USD and the fact that macro drivers and corporate profits are improving to accelerate its unwinding of the stimulus. However, it seems comfortable ignoring the risks of perpetuating bubbles in financial assets. By being too focused on financial markets it becomes what I call in my book “Escape from the Central Bank Trap” a “pyromaniac firefighter” that creates a massive bubble and presents itself as the solution when it bursts. 

The Federal Reserve could be raising rates and unwinding its balance sheet by $50-100bn every month now that demand for bonds and equities remains solid and the employment, inflation and growth data is improving, while earnings estimates are increasing. There would be more than ample secondary market demand for a solid sterilization program.

The ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place. It is on its way to reaching a balance sheet size of more tan 25% of GDP of the Eurozone and inflation expectations are falling, unemployment and slack are still high, proving that the problem of the Eurozone was never of liquidity and low rates. When the ECB QE started, excess liquidity was c€185bn and today it is close to €1.3 trillion. In the process, highly indebted and deficit-spending countries saved billions in interest payments,… but their imbalances remain and they have spent those savings and more, making it almost impossible for the ECB to taper and raise rates because high-deficit countries would be unable to assume it. But at the same time, the overcapacity of the economy is perpetuated and many countries are calling for further spending increases and widening deficits. The ECB, therefore, needs to give a stronger message to governments so that they accelerate reforms to reduce excess spending and improve growth, lower taxes. If the ECB starts a sterilization program and manages long-term rates adequately, it could successfully promote structural reforms, help spur growth and use that massive excess liquidity to keep bond yields low while governments improve their fiscal position. This would reduce the perverse incentives that some may have to increase imbalances just because QE is there. Furthermore, as the crisis is way behind us, the ECB’s purchases would be easily offset by real investor demand, as fundamentals improve. There is still time before Europe enters a dangerous “Japanization” process.”

Courtesy Focus Economics. Follow @FocusEconomics

Daniel Lacalle is Chief Economist at Tressis SV, has a PhD in Economics and is author of “Escape from the Central Bank Trap”, “Life In The Financial Markets” and “The Energy World Is Flat” (Wiley)

See more at: https://www.dlacalle.com/what-does-dr-copper-tell-us-about-global-growth/#sthash.AmZP9FEL.dpuf

 

What Does Dr Copper Tell Us About Global Growth?

Weakness in Copper persists, and it shows the risks to optimistic global growth and inflation expectations.

This weakness is down to a number of reasons:

Copper is the commodity that is most linked to industrial production. Copper price is a good indicator of the global economy as fluctuations in price are usually determined by industrial demand.  Given that Chinese demand represents approximately 50% of global copper demand, the slowdown  of its  economy  has a big impact on the price.

Additionally, many of the low-quality loans in China use copper as collateral, up to 30% according to HSBC, as it is an indicator of industrial activity and closely linked to Chinese growth. When the market begins to question the debt repayment capacity of many Chinese companies, margin calls are triggered and copper falls with it.

It is a double impact: Financial and demand-led. What was supposed to be a good hedge is actually a double risk on the economic slowdown.

Lower demand growth, persistent overcapacity.

The estimated surplus of refined copper was recently revised up, despite some moderation in production.

According to Platt’s:

The global refined copper market saw a surplus of around 165,000 mt in the first quarter of 2017, according to preliminary data released Tuesday by the International Copper Study Group.

“This is mainly due to [a] decline in Chinese apparent demand,” analysts with the Lisbon-based research firm said in a report. China currently represents 47% of the world copper refined usage.

Factoring in changes to private, unreported copper stocks in China, the first-quarter surplus rose to about 310,000 mt, it said.

Chile accounts for c34% of the world’s copper production, approximately 19% of the revenues for the country. USA is the fourth largest copper producer in the world, after Chile, Peru and China, and Australia is fifth. All these countries are producing at peak levels, and a small decrease of 3.5% year-on-year has failed to address the surplus.

In terms of demand, China accounts for c50%, followed by Europe 17%, other Asia 15%, U.S. c8%, Japan 5%. The rest are minor consumers.

Risks to demand estimates for refined copper in China, despite improved European indicators, mean that overcapacity increases. Current demand growth estimates are factoring a stronger US economy and a large infrastructure plan that is curtrently at risk of being severely delayed.

Refined copper overcapacity has remained since 2014, and calls for a “next year market balance” have been incorrect. China has seen its stockpiles of copper grow and it is looking to start exporting, just as supply continues to exceed demand.

Structural overcapacity and downward revisions of demand growth are the main drivers of the weakness in copper prices.

In summary, what Dr Copper is telling us loud and clear is that the infamous “reflation theme” that mainstream analysts have defended is simply incorrect, and that excessively optimistic expectations of global growth and inflation have to be revised down.

 

Daniel Lacalle is Chief Economist at Tressis SV, has a PhD in Economics and is author of “Escape from the Central Bank Trap”, “Life In The Financial Markets” and “The Energy World Is Flat” (Wiley)

@dlacalle_IA

Picture courtesy of Bloomberg

– See more at: https://www.dlacalle.com/video-buy-us-dollar-assets-opportunities-and-risks-after-the-fed-rate-hike/#sthash.Of4w0L2y.dpuf