Investing in oil companies as a “sure bet” when there is a temporary spike in crude is usually a challenging idea.

Doing it during a war, when the destruction of demand can be much greater than the first jump in the commodity price, is even riskier. Recent history in 2008, 2018, 2022, and 2025 proves this.
Investing in oil companies must be based on fundamental analysis that is independent from the spot price of crude and natural gas and focused on value creation at mid‑cycle prices.
The key is not to jump on a short‑term wave that the oil companies themselves barely capture in their profits.
The SXEP index tracks European oil & gas companies that are highly sensitive to different businesses, expectations, investment cycles, and regulations, and in many cases, they are fundamentally refiners, not pure producers that capture the “spot” price of crude.
Continue reading Why wars don’t move oil and defence stocks the way investors expect