The markets have been rocked by news of a possible intervention to control the Japanese yen slump, after it reached a forty-year low relative to the US dollar. Fixing the yen and any other fiat currency is simple: Implement an Austrian approach; eliminate constant deficit spending and monetization of government outlays; and implement clear, sound money policies that support the purchasing power of the currency. Letting rates float and having zero deficit would help. However, no government seems to want to control spending and eliminate constant artificial currency creation, even knowing that, by doing so, they would limit the risk of financial crises, excessive risk-taking, and erosion of citizens’ wage purchasing power.

The best a citizen can expect today is a mild form of Keynesianism that aims for lower taxes, relatively lower spending, and a constant expansion of money supply as the driver of economic growth. Even this “lesser evil” approach ends with malinvestment, financial crises, and more politicians demanding “public investment” as the solution.

Article published by Tomorrow’s Affairs.

The increase in the global geopolitical risk index has not affected global markets. The general tone remains bullish despite a surprising “neutral” view shown in CNN’s Fear and Greed Index.

The reality is completely different. Investors may say they are neutral given the elevated valuations and the global uncertainty, but most asset managers’ positioning is exceedingly bullish and concentrated on very cyclical sectors like banks and technology.

The main reason for this striking contrast between explicit concerns and positioning is a clear consensus of central bank easing as the norm. Global money supply is expected to grow much faster than nominal GDP in 2026, what I call the monetary tsunami.

Despite the consensus narrative, what we are currently experiencing globally is not “de‑dollarization,” but a broad loss of confidence in developed economies’ fiat currencies and sovereign debt as a reserve asset for central banks and institutions. This fundamental loss of confidence in the solvency of developed economies’ sovereign issuers is boosting demand for gold. However, the latest data shows no crossover or fiat alternative substitution. The US dollar’s central role in the fiat system remains intact.

The Congressional Budget Office has revised its estimates and states that the tariff increases implemented from January 6, 2025, to November 15, 2025, will reduce the primary deficit of the United States by $2.5 trillion over 11 years if they remain in place during the 2025–2035 period. Tariff revenues have risen to $90 billion between October and December 2025, compared with $20 billion in the same period in 2024. However, year-over-year inflation during that period is actually lower.

Inflation in the United States has not surged to 5–6%, as some investment banks had predicted following the tariff announcements. In fact, the year-over-year CPI, the PCE Index, and import prices reported by customs and border offices show no discernible increase in year-over-year inflation and are certainly very far away from the consensus estimates.