The European Union had years to prepare itself for an energy crisis after the 2022 shock. Thanks to a warm winter and ample supply from the United States, the European gas crisis was significantly less severe than feared. However, the continent avoided blackouts and an economic collapse due to the combination of good luck with weather and excess productive capacity in the United States.

Instead of acknowledging the luck factor, the European Union continued to do nothing serious about security of supply, while some countries maintained the nuclear shutdown, which has left them vulnerable to future energy shortages. Instead of creating a plan to eliminate the bans on resource development, nuclear shutdowns, and limits to investment, the European Union preferred to hide its head in the sand, expecting that nothing would happen.

The recent correction in Bitcoin has created a familiar debate. Is it a worthless speculative asset or a true monetary alternative? At $67,000, the price may be volatile, but it is hardly worthless. 

Bitcoin may be both a warning and an opportunity. It remains a strong hedge against the destruction of fiat money and financial repression for many citizens in the world, but it is also a volatile asset that can damage investors who believe its price can only rise. 

For many investors, the recent correction in bitcoin is a concern. However, this is only if we look at bitcoin in US dollars, euros or world reserve currencies.

For citizens all over the world, from Cuba to Iran, suffering the elevated inflation and currency demolition created by their governments, bitcoin is certainly a haven.

The huge growth in bitcoin’s price over the past few years shows that many investors have lost faith in fiat currencies and the solvency of states that are getting more in debt. 

Every time there is tension in the Middle East, we read that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz. It is important to remind readers that Iran has never actually shut down the strait. It has threatened to do so many times but has never followed through. Moreover, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would primarily hurt China, as about 76% of traffic through it goes to the Asian giant, with less than 4% going to the United States and around 7% to the European Union.

China is one of the few key partners of the Iranian regime, purchasing close to 90% of Iran’s exports. A shutdown would therefore damage China the most, which is precisely why it is unlikely to happen. Oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz by country also show that one of the largest negative impacts would be on Iran itself, which ships around 2.3 million barrels per day of crude and products through this route.