Mainstream commentary on the tax reform is mostly negative. But why is the response from the globalist crowd so aggressive? Continue reading Why the Critics of the Tax Reform Are Wrong
What Will Cause The Next Recession?
The most recent consensus estimates for global Gross Domestic Product growth show a healthy “synchronised” development in most economies. Expectations for the major economies are much stronger than what economists expected at the end of 2016 for the next three years. Seems all concerns about a global slowdown and subsequent recession have disappeared. What has changed? Continue reading What Will Cause The Next Recession?
Are 2018 Inflation Expectations Too High?
Consensus expects inflation to rise faster in 2018. However, there are important risks to this estimate:
- Technology disinflation
- Overcapacity
- Ageing of the population
We should keep an eye on these estimates because they are likely to impact emerging market growth and asset valuations.
Consensus estimates chart courtesy of Focus Economics.
Daniel Lacalle is a PhD Economist, author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap and Life In The Financial Markets. He is Chief Economist at Tressis
Video: Real Conversations with Keith McCullough on US Economy, Europe and Socialism
Watch this conversation where we discuss:
Continue reading Video: Real Conversations with Keith McCullough on US Economy, Europe and Socialism