Many analysts and economists are trying to predict the shape of the economic recovery post-Covid-19. To understand how the recovery may look like, we need to look at past recoveries and at the history of pandemics.
Starting with the pandemic, we know a few things. First, there has never been a vaccine for any of the previous 18 Covid types. Second, there has never been a pandemic without a second wave before a treatment existed. Taking both things into account, the idea that many investors have that the worst is discounted may be overoptimistic.
Continue reading An “L”-Shaped Recovery Is Not An Anomaly, It Is The Norm.