Commodities Update: Plenty of Supply

Energy, Global Economy, On the cover, Sin categoría
Brent down 3.2% MTD at c$107/bbl. WTI at $94/bbl (-4%). Differential has settled around $13/bbl. 
 
US production at a 25-year high.
Global oil supply at 92.23m b/d, up 1.16m b/d or 1.3% y/y. Within this OPEC supplies increased 310k b/d m/m to 29.82m b/d on higher output from Saudi Arabia & the UAE. Iraq was the only member to post a monthly decline in December.  Continue reading Commodities Update: Plenty of Supply →

Spain: Recovery, yes. But high taxes and bureaucracy limit potential

Global Economy, On the cover, Sin categoría, Spain
“The real goal should be reduced government spending, rather than balanced budgets achieved by ever rising tax rates to cover ever rising spending”. Thomas Sowell
high taxes and bureaucracy limit potential


Spanish bond yields have fallen to pre-crisis levels despite debt to GDP reaching c100%, a deficit that will be above the target 6.5% and refinancing needs of c€224bn in 2014. The “Draghi put”, added to much better comps on unemployment (fallen by 147k in 2013), consumer spending (+2% in December) and added to expectations of an 0.5%-1% growth in GDP have helped. Continue reading Spain: Recovery, yes. But high taxes and bureaucracy limit potential →

Commodities Update

Energy, Global Economy, On the cover, Sin categoría
US gas ends the year as the king of commodities, up 19% YTD at $4.31/mmbtu as the injection trend reversed to a bullish storage withdrawal in the past two months. Looking to 2014, exports + coal plant retirements adding 3bcf/d of demand keep me confident of improving US gas prices. Total working storage is now at 2,974 Bcf, 562 Bcf below last year’s 3,536 Bcf and 289 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,263 Bcf. Continue reading Commodities Update →

Commodities Update: More Supply… Don’t Bet On Price Inflation

Energy, Global Economy, On the cover, Sin categoría

Brent – WTI differential shrunk recently from $20 to $11.5/bbl.WTI rallied due to the Keystone line fill. Before the pipeline goes into service it needs to be filled up with oil (600kbpd) so there is a continuous flow once it starts up. The pipeline is 485 miles long and goes from Cushing, OK to Nederland, TX. Careful, this is a technical and temporary effect. Continue reading Commodities Update: More Supply… Don’t Bet On Price Inflation →