Salamander, a case of de-rating through exploration

Being an E&P the main catalyst for the company’s stock is its exploration campaign. However, when it comes to this, Salamander Energy has not had the greatest run.Out of 3 exploration wells dug by Salamander Energy in 2010, none were successful in finding commercial hydrocarbon flows.

Bang Nouan 1 well was spudded in April 2010 in Lao PDR. However, in May the company reported that the zones of permeability encountered in the primary objective were water bearing. All hopes were turned to the gas shows encountered in the secondary objective, which upon a well test, failed to be of commercial level. Thus, the well was plugged and abandoned in early August.

The next blow came from the high-risk Tom Su Lua prospect, Vietnam, where TSL-1X well was drilled. However, in late June the company announced that the well has been plugged and abandoned having failed to encounter any commercial hydrocarbon levels. It had been drilled to a total vertical depth sub-sea of 1,380mt and encountered both, potential seals and high quality reservoir sandstones, which were water-wet in the Tertiary clastic section.

The company then focused on drilling the THX-1X well on the Tom Hum Xanh prospect in Vietnam, 250km south of the TSL-1X well. Similar to its neighbour, THX-1X was announced a dry hole in late July and subsequently was plugged and abandoned as it failed to encounter significant hydrocarbons in the target reservoir sections. It is important to note that the acreage in Vietnam was previously unexplored and therefore was high risk.

The key risk to the share price is the company’s drilling results. Since the start of the year the company has drilled 3 wells, all of which have been subsequently plugged and abandoned as dry holes. Thus, the results of its next planned wells, Angklung and Dambus in Indonesia’s Kutai basin, are the key risks to the stock performance. Serica Energy, operator of Dambus, has assigned a 40% chance of success for the well, while Salamander Energy has estimated the geological risk for the Angklung at 24%. However, both wells are located in a heavily explored acreage, which already contains several producing wells.

Unsuccessful drilling campaign has cost the company in the loss of 40% of its stock value since the beginning of the year. However, although the stock is in a downward trend, it has not reacted greatly to the drilling updates.

The market’s reactions to the updates were positive. Thus, the stock rose on average by 2.00% on the day Salamander Energy plugged and abandoned its wells. Moreover, it seems that the market was reacting to the negative news a day before the announcement was made public. The company is currently trading at 34% above its core NAV (164p/sh) while E&A risked upside is at 116p/sh (632p/sh unrisked).

Overall, the Dambus well looks low-risk, while although the company claims the same about the Angklung, the failure of Unicol as well as the delay in project have put an increased risk on the prospect. Thus, the results of these 2 wells will be crucial to the future position of the company.

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, Hedgeye, Epoch Times, Mises Institute, BBN Times, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

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