Tag Archives: Politics

US: The Weakest Jobs Recovery On Record

02/05/2014

US unemployment rate is at 6.2%…. or is it?

The US Labor Force plunged -806k to 155.421 million, up just +0.04% Y/Y (+0.73% Y/Y prior).

Most importantly, those Not in the Labor Force surged +988k to 92.018 million, which is the highest on record.

The Workforce Participation Rate fell to 62.81% in April (63.18% prior), the lowest since 1978.

The (U-6) “real” unemployment rate is 12.3%. (Source Boenning & Scattergood, US jobs data)

Additionally, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 20% of all families in the United States do not have a single member that is employed.   62% of all Americans make $20 or less an hour at this point. The number of Americans receiving benefits from the federal government each month exceeds the number of full-time workers in the private sector by more than 60 million.

 

US fake unemployment

 

Nominal wage growth is also inexistent:

 

US wage growth

 

And no, the difference between unemployment and the decline of labour participation is not explained just by  “demographics” and retirements… at all:

Population participation

 

Meanwhile, debt reaches record level

Total-Debt-300x199

Commodities Update: Plenty of Supply

Brent down 3.2% MTD at c$107/bbl. WTI at $94/bbl (-4%). Differential has settled around $13/bbl. 
 
US production at a 25-year high.
Global oil supply at 92.23m b/d, up 1.16m b/d or 1.3% y/y. Within this OPEC supplies increased 310k b/d m/m to 29.82m b/d on higher output from Saudi Arabia & the UAE. Iraq was the only member to post a monthly decline in December.  Continue reading Commodities Update: Plenty of Supply

Commodities Update

US gas ends the year as the king of commodities, up 19% YTD at $4.31/mmbtu as the injection trend reversed to a bullish storage withdrawal in the past two months. Looking to 2014, exports + coal plant retirements adding 3bcf/d of demand keep me confident of improving US gas prices. Total working storage is now at 2,974 Bcf, 562 Bcf below last year’s 3,536 Bcf and 289 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,263 Bcf. Continue reading Commodities Update