Consensus expects inflation to rise faster in 2018. However, there are important risks to this estimate:
- Technology disinflation
- Ageing of the population
We should keep an eye on these estimates because they are likely to impact emerging market growth and asset valuations.
Consensus estimates chart courtesy of Focus Economics.
Daniel Lacalle is a PhD Economist, author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap and Life In The Financial Markets. He is Chief Economist at Tressis