Are 2018 Inflation Expectations Too High?

Consensus expects inflation to rise faster in 2018. However, there are important risks to this estimate:

  • Technology disinflation
  • Overcapacity
  • Ageing of the population

We should keep an eye on these estimates because they are likely to impact emerging market growth and asset valuations.

Are 2018 Inflation Expectations Too High?

 

Consensus estimates chart courtesy of Focus Economics.

Daniel Lacalle is a PhD Economist, author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap and Life In The Financial Markets. He is Chief Economist at Tressis

 

About Daniel Lacalle

Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Author of bestsellers "Life In The Financial Markets" and "The Energy World Is Flat" as well as "Escape From the Central Bank Trap". Daniel Lacalle (Madrid, 1967). PhD Economist and Fund Manager. Frequent collaborator with CNBC, Hedgeye, Wall Street Journal, El Español, A3 Media and 13TV. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE. Holds the CIIA (Certified International Investment Analyst) and masters in Economic Investigation and IESE.

One thought on “Are 2018 Inflation Expectations Too High?

  1. Inflation not going up doesn’t mean interest rates will rise slower than forecasted, too, correct? There obviously is a relationship, but it’s not the only one determining interest rates.
    I am pointing this out because there is this common “inflation -> interest rates up -> stock market down” talk, which is a bit too single threaded

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