Category Archives: English


Are 2018 Inflation Expectations Too High?

Consensus expects inflation to rise faster in 2018. However, there are important risks to this estimate:

  • Technology disinflation
  • Overcapacity
  • Ageing of the population

We should keep an eye on these estimates because they are likely to impact emerging market growth and asset valuations.

Are 2018 Inflation Expectations Too High?


Consensus estimates chart courtesy of Focus Economics.

Daniel Lacalle is a PhD Economist, author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap and Life In The Financial Markets. He is Chief Economist at Tressis


The Oil Market Is Well Supplied. Thoughts for 2014

Fans of monetary stimulus always ignore the biggest and best push for the economy. Cheap energy. Finding oil and gas.

The United States have achieved an economic stimulus equivalent to 1.3% of GDP thanks to the energy revolution brought by fracking. It is a very significant positive effect, both on the supply and demand side. Continue reading The Oil Market Is Well Supplied. Thoughts for 2014

My Top 20 Lou Reed songs. A Hero. RIP

Remember Lou Reed. My Top 20:

1) Walk On The Wild Side
2) Venus In Furs
3) Perfect Day
4) Waiting For My Man
5) Sweet Jane (from Rock ‘n’ Roll Animal)
6) Caroline Says II
7) Legendary Hearts
8) Doing The Things We Want To
9) Dirty Boulevard
10) Street Hassle
11) Junior Dad (+ Metallica)
12) Rock ‘n’ Roll Heart
13) Kill Your Sons
14) Rock ‘n’ Roll
15) White Light White Heat
16) The Gun
17) Teach The Gifted Children
18) I Love You Suzanne
19) Heroin
20) Set The Twilight Reeling

More Merkel, Better Europe

“However the Germans vote on 22 September, Berlin’s attitude to the EU is not going to change much” – Charles Grant

Two weeks ago, Angela Merkel and Peer Steinbrück , leading candidates for German Chancellor,  held an election debate on TV. It was a quiet event, without fanfare or big accusations. There were no negative comments to the policies of budget cuts, rather the opposite. Commenting this with German friends, they told me: “The obsession with the so-called austerity is a problem in other countries, here people understand that budgets must be balanced”. Continue reading More Merkel, Better Europe