Exporters in Europe face a headwind if euro strength holds from CNBC.
In this short video at CNBC we discuss the risks of a strengthening EUR for European estimates:
- Eurostoxx earnings’ growth estimates are at risk. A full year of EUR/USD above 1.20 means earnings growth could go to zero as most exporters in the index are mid-to-low value-added that fail to maintain margins if the European currency strengthens.
- ECB’s inflation expectations are under threat. A full year of EUR/USD above 1.20 means both core and headline inflation could fall below 0.8% and 1.5% respectively.
- ECB will likely have to postpone normalization of monetary policy while risk of fueling bubbles is mounting.
Daniel Lacalle is a PhD Economist, author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap and Life In The Financial Markets. He is Chief Economist at Tressis
Mainstream commentary on the 
The most recent consensus estimates for global Gross Domestic Product growth show a healthy “synchronised” development in most economies. Expectations for the major economies are much stronger than what economists expected at the end of 2016 for the next three years. Seems all concerns about a global slowdown and subsequent recession have disappeared. What has changed? 
