Mainstream commentary on the tax reform is mostly negative. But why is the response from the globalist crowd so aggressive? Continue reading Why the Critics of the Tax Reform Are Wrong
Category Archives: Global Economy
What Will Cause The Next Recession?
The most recent consensus estimates for global Gross Domestic Product growth show a healthy “synchronised” development in most economies. Expectations for the major economies are much stronger than what economists expected at the end of 2016 for the next three years. Seems all concerns about a global slowdown and subsequent recession have disappeared. What has changed? Continue reading What Will Cause The Next Recession?
Are 2018 Inflation Expectations Too High?
Consensus expects inflation to rise faster in 2018. However, there are important risks to this estimate:
- Technology disinflation
- Overcapacity
- Ageing of the population
We should keep an eye on these estimates because they are likely to impact emerging market growth and asset valuations.
Consensus estimates chart courtesy of Focus Economics.
Daniel Lacalle is a PhD Economist, author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap and Life In The Financial Markets. He is Chief Economist at Tressis
Why We Should Worry About China
This article was published in Israel here.
Many of our readers might remember the late 80s. There were hundreds of movies, songs and books about the inevitable Japanese economic invasion. The ones of you that did not live that period can see that it did not happen.
Why? Because the Japanese growth miracle was built on a massive debt bubble and, once it burst, the country fell into stagnation for the better part of two decades. It still has not recovered. Continue reading Why We Should Worry About China