All posts by Daniel Lacalle
Brent -0.6% MTD, WTI -1.1%. Brent-WTI spread +8.2% MTD. In the US, DOE data showed crude built 1.43 MMBbls vs. expectations for a 1.08 MMBbl build. Cushing crude inventories were down 2.67 MMBbls on the week and now stand at 32.1 MMBbls vs. approximate capacity of 66 MMBbls. Gasoline drew 1.60 MMBbls vs. expectations for a 0.88 MMBbl draw and distillates built 1.41 MMBbls vs. expectations for a 1.03 MMBbl draw. All products built 0.03 MMBbls. Refinery utilization was down 0.6% vs. expectations for a 0.3% decrease. Refinery utilization stands at 87.4% vs. a 5-year average of 82.4%. The 4-week average gasoline demand was down 0.9% YoY, and 4-week average distillate demand was up 1.0% YoY.
Japanese growth was revised down 30% to 0.7% in 4Q 2013. Aramco reduced Arab Light premium to Asia 20 cts/bbl, to $1.55 over average of Oman/Dubai grades; also cut Extra Light 20 cents, to $3.50/bbl; both had been expected to rise 15 cts. Shows how well supplied the market is. China’s overseas shipments declined by 18.1 percent in February from a year earlier, the biggest drop since August 2009, the General Administration of Customs reported on March 8. A median 7.5 percent increase was projected in a Bloomberg News survey of 45 economists.
Escalation of the conflict in Libya, as the country’s PM ordered an attack on a North Korean tanker which reportedly loaded $36m of crude from the rebel-controlled Es Sider terminal, if the tanker leaves the port. The rebels said any attack on the tanker would be interpreted as a declaration of war. Continue reading Commodities … Weakness despite Ukraine
Venezuela and the Nightmare of the Petrostate
“The petrostate collects huge revenues, but in turn creates powerful and compelling incentives for cronyism” Ibsen Martínez
Continue reading Venezuela and the Nightmare of the Petrostate
My Thoughts On The Ukraine Crisis
“We must understand that the dependence on Russian gas is declining. Russia depends on Europe as its key gas consuming partner, if we analyse who needs whom the situation is very balanced. Moscow needs us more than we believe” Continue reading My Thoughts On The Ukraine Crisis
Commodities Update
Marcellus production went from 12.1-Bcf/d last Thursday and settled at 12.9-Bcf/d, more than expected, potentially suggesting a faster timeline in filling the new pipes: in weeks instead of months seen historically. Continue reading Commodities Update