Category Archives: On the cover

On the cover

UK Recovery: Sustainable Or Another Housing Bubble?

Global Economy, On the cover, Sin categoría

Relying on ever-rising house prices pushing home values up via artificially cheap lending creates only the illusion of growth – Ros Altmann

As you know, I have lived in London for ten years. The United Kingdom, throughout the Gordon Brown years, was the Keynesian stimulus experiment that the advocates inflation and devaluation always ‘forget’. They talk a lot about Abenomics and Obama but forget the stimulus+inflation-led economic destruction of the early 2000s, and the hole in public finances it caused. A hole that the UK has not been able to dig itself out of, despite carrying out a brutal monetary stimulus policy where the Bank of England buys nearly 70% of the public debt issued. Continue reading UK Recovery: Sustainable Or Another Housing Bubble? →

Commodities Update

Energy, Global Economy, On the cover, Sin categoría

Oil still trending down ($106.8.0 Brent), WTI discount to Brent now at $12/bbl.I have been talking all month about the widening driven by tightness in Brent and ample supplies in US. Brent has stayed strong this week on the drying up of Libyan exports. No such supply issues in the US where crude stocks have risen well above the 5-yr range causing the Brent-WTI spread to widen abruptly. Continue reading Commodities Update →

Careful with China

Global Economy, On the cover, Sin categoría
“The most scary thing is that even the Central government does not really know how large the size of the local government debt is”. – Hu Yifan

I mention it constantly. Massive debt accumulation generates greater fragility in the financial system. While global PMIs maintain their expansionary phase, we start to feel a certain level of deceleration. Fitch reduced its global growth estimates for both 2013-to +2.3% – and 2014-from +3.1% to +2.9% -, and the more cyclical companies that have posted results are cautious about the outlook for 2014. We should note that some economies are moving dangerously towards stagnation. Brazil , damaged by the populist policies of Rousseff , with soaring inflation, is poised to post virtually no growth in 2015 and India, with a growing current account deficit and high inflation in food prices, is a concern that I have mentioned before in this column.However, in between investor euphoria, the liquidity trap of monetary stimulus created by the eternal QE and imbalances in emerging countries, we had forgotten China. It is worth analysing some data. Continue reading Careful with China →

My Top 20 Lou Reed songs. A Hero. RIP

English, Global Economy, On the cover, Sin categoría

Remember Lou Reed. My Top 20:

1) Walk On The Wild Side
2) Venus In Furs
3) Perfect Day
4) Waiting For My Man
5) Sweet Jane (from Rock ‘n’ Roll Animal)
6) Caroline Says II
7) Legendary Hearts
8) Doing The Things We Want To
9) Dirty Boulevard
10) Street Hassle
11) Junior Dad (+ Metallica)
12) Rock ‘n’ Roll Heart
13) Kill Your Sons
14) Rock ‘n’ Roll
15) White Light White Heat
16) The Gun
17) Teach The Gifted Children
18) I Love You Suzanne
19) Heroin
20) Set The Twilight Reeling