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Abenomics Failure In Six Charts

” Those who believe in Abenomics are suffering from amnesia. This is nothing new ” Yasunari Ueno (Mitzuho)

A few months ago in this blog I commented that the policy implemented by Japan to fight deflation is nothing new, and as such would not meet the expectations that consensus gave to the supposed magical solutions. And so it has been.

Continue reading Abenomics Failure In Six Charts

The Liquidity Trap

An analysis of the consequences of monetary policies and quantitative easing in the global economy.

This video is the part 4/4 of the Business Strategies Applied to the Changing Economy Conference organised by VINtmus.

Daniel Lacalle is an economist and portfolio manager with expertise in energy & utilities.

Mr. Lacalle was voted Number 1 Oil & Gas Fund Manager in Extel 2011, #3 in Utilities and #3 in Oil Services and #3 General Equities/Strategy. Continue reading The Liquidity Trap

Commodities … Weakness despite Ukraine

Brent -0.6% MTD, WTI -1.1%. Brent-WTI spread +8.2% MTD. In the US, DOE data showed crude built 1.43 MMBbls vs. expectations for a 1.08 MMBbl build. Cushing crude inventories were down 2.67 MMBbls on the week and now stand at 32.1 MMBbls vs. approximate capacity of 66 MMBbls. Gasoline drew 1.60 MMBbls vs. expectations for a 0.88 MMBbl draw and distillates built 1.41 MMBbls vs. expectations for a 1.03 MMBbl draw. All products built 0.03 MMBbls. Refinery utilization was down 0.6% vs. expectations for a 0.3% decrease. Refinery utilization stands at 87.4% vs. a 5-year average of 82.4%. The 4-week average gasoline demand was down 0.9% YoY, and 4-week average distillate demand was up 1.0% YoY.
Japanese growth was revised down 30% to 0.7% in 4Q 2013. Aramco reduced Arab Light premium to Asia 20 cts/bbl, to $1.55 over average of Oman/Dubai grades; also cut Extra Light 20 cents, to $3.50/bbl; both had been expected to rise 15 cts. Shows how well supplied the market is. China’s overseas shipments declined by 18.1 percent in February from a year earlier, the biggest drop since August 2009, the General Administration of Customs reported on March 8. A median 7.5 percent increase was projected in a Bloomberg News survey of 45 economists.
Escalation of the conflict in Libya, as the country’s PM ordered an attack on a North Korean tanker which reportedly loaded $36m of crude from the rebel-controlled Es Sider terminal, if the tanker leaves the port. The rebels said any attack on the tanker would be interpreted as a declaration of war. Continue reading Commodities … Weakness despite Ukraine